Thomson Reuters is a global intelligent information firm for businesses and professionals. They have recently partnered with Wood Mackenzie for access to global crude oil supply data. The Capstone team provided a global crude oil markets forecast analysis. In doing so, it accomplished two objectives: analyzing changes in net production in key regions by different grades on a monthly and annual basis and identifying the key players impacting oil production in the next 18 years.
The team’s analysis showed that through 2035, world production is expected to increase by almost 4 mbpd, however the dynamics are diverse. On the upside, the US will flood the market with crude, while other countries like Canada and Brazil will also increase production with unconventional production. On the other hand, Russia will lead the decliners. Moreover, regarding China, the country’s lack of investment and aging fields is contributing to a sustained decline. Also worth noticing, once dominant producer Norway will continue to decline, while Mexico’s energy overhaul will not be enough to stop their fall in production. Additionally, although unconventional oil production will increase dramatically, this will be done mainly by the US.
Regarding API grade, the team’s analysis identified that oil entering the system from new discoveries will be mostly heavy, which will reduce the global weighted API offsetting light oil coming from shale. From 2025 onward, sulfur content across world crude is going to increase. This will have repercussions on refineries investment plans, and profitability, as oil becomes increasingly sour and heavier.