The Trump Administration introduced several policy changes to achieve its objective in maximizing U.S. fossil fuel potential. Bloomberg New Energy Finance identified seven policy areas that might impact the U.S. natural gas market: BLM Federal Land Management and Offshore Acreage, Interstate Pipeline Regulations, LNG Export Regulations and the Jones Act, Tax Reform, EPA Regulations, NAFTA, and Other Policies around renewables, solar and steel tariffs, and coal.
The SIPA Capstone team researched the aforementioned policies to identify probable effects and impact and found minimal effects from proposed changes to LNG export regulations and the attempts to revitalize the coal industry. Therefore, the second half of the report examined the impact of changes to NAFTA, BLM regulation, environmental and permitting changes, Corporate Tax rate change, and solar and steel import tariff on the U.S. natural gas market and compared this to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) baseline projections from now until year 2025. The SIPA Capstone analysis projected that there could be a total increase in production of 0.9702 Tcf of natural gas in the U.S. as a result of Tax Reform, Environmental Reform, and the Solar Tariffs in the next five years. However, this gain might be offset by the decrease in demand from Mexico due to NAFTA changes with the introduction of a 30% export tariff, if the producers fail to find another market for the gas.
Overall, the Capstone team’s analysis and projections found that the impact of the proposed Trump Administration policies around fossil fuels would be minimal and will be unlikely to change the projection from the EIA baseline by a significant degree.