Credit is the lifeblood of the globalized economy: trade claims, bank loans, collateralized debt obligations, student debt, auto debt, mortgages and credit cards and so on, each of these promises-to-pay functions as working capital that enables the economy to function and grow. However, as an economic expansion ages, rising private sector debt levels take on a more important role in the economic expansion and the robustness of the expansion diminishes. Within this view of economic cycles, a contraction of private debt will lead to economic contraction and recession.  The goal of the Capstone Project is to develop and document a narrative (a quantitative and qualitative model) of how the credit cycle evolves and the channels by which it can impact the business cycle.