Technological Change Is Altering Nature of Conflict in 21st Century

Cyberspace has turned into a “place to gain strategic advantage against our adversaries,” argued author Shane Harris.

Speaking at an April 9 discussion of “The Future of War and Armed Conflict: How Technological Change Is Altering the Nature of Conflict in the 21st Century,” Harris and fellow panelists examined how political and military strategies are changing, adapting, and posing new legal questions for individuals and governments around the globe as technologies continue to advance.

Joining Harris, who is also a senior correspondent for the Daily Beast, were Yasmin Green, head of strategy and operations at Google Ideas; Alec Ross, a senior fellow at SIPA; Ari Wallach, the founder and CEO of Synthesis Group and an adjunct faculty member SIPA; and Matthew Waxman, the Liviu Librescu Professor of Law at Columbia Law School. The event was sponsored by SIPA and the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies.

Ross reeled off numerous cyber attacks that have taken place in recent months, including a series that have targeted various French television stations. Those attacks, Ross said, have placed governments in a new position in which the victims demand a response: “What are you going to do?”

He argued that cyber warfare is a new domain and that the United States and other countries have the right to engage offensively and defensively. However, with private companies continuing to experience attacks, future cyber warfare could see private companies joining traditional states.

Ross also argued that the United States needs to fight harder and dirtier in the global information war, suggesting that the United States has brought a knife to a gunfight against both Russia and ISIS.

On this point Harris disagreed, arguing that the United States will need to find a new way entirely to fight misinformation.He also argued that the ease and cheapness of technology would come to define the new nature of conflicts.

In response, Waxman said that “one of the lessons of history is to be quite cautious.” It is still difficult, he said, to predict the transformative impact of technologies on warfare—

experts once predicted, for example, that air power would be able to completely stop industry from operating. This did not turn out to be true, he added.

Waxman also emphasized that laws and treaties like the Geneva Convention are designed for traditional interstate conflicts, and will need to adapt to deal with unconventional actors as traditional states continue to engage with them.

Green said that the number of Internet users around the globe will double in the next 10 years. She emphasized that companies will need work to empower the next three billion people coming online, mentioning that activists have told her that if they are not tech savvy, they cannot be effective because they are not safe.

Green also asked what technology companies should be doing for people living in repressive states. She gave the example of how Iran’s president, foreign minister, and supreme leader all use websites like Instagram and Facebook that are supposed to be banned.

Green also focused on how individuals have been able to use technology in ways that companies did not have in mind when creating them. She noted the example of protesters in Ukraine using social networking sites to organize themselves.